Honolulu Rail Project Ends 2020 Like Just about Everything Else Ends the Year – Side-Tracked and Delayed, but with Hope for the Future

                                   

                                       When will Honolulu's elevated rail project be completed?

Yes2Rail’s author has had an up-close-and-personal view of Honolulu’s rail romance since 1990. That’s when I first began working as a consultant to the French transit-building company Matra Transport, one of five firms that bid on Mayor Frank Fasi’s last major push to build an elevated rail alternative to sitting in at-grade traffic.

That effort ended abruptly in 1992 when the City Council failed to pass an increase in the GET to pay for the “local share.” The City wised up when it launched the current project more than a decade later. It handled the local share first, then obtained the federal portion, and then solicited bids to build the 20-mile line from Kapolei to Ala Moana Center. 

 

Like the current project, Mayor Fasi’s version would have covered 20 miles but would have ended at the University of Hawaii campus in Manoa. The cost: $3.2 billion compared to what now looks like a $11 billion-plus investment. Fearless Frank’s train would have been running since 2003.

 

That Was Then

 

I mention this little bit of history to show how badly the project has fared in its current iteration. Instead of already giving traffic-maddened commuters on Oahu’s south side a smooth trip to and from downtown for nearly two decades, the project still faces major delays and horrendous cost increases. 

 

The commuting facts of life remain unchanged in the southern corridor. One fact still justifies the project: Grade-separated transit is the only way to predict the time of arrival when you begin your commute -- on time, every time. There will be no Kapolei-to-downtown commuting alternative to sitting in traffic for the rest of this century if rail is not built as originally planned.

See the lower-right corner? Traffic will NEVER get better.

This anti-rail cartoon clipped from Honolulu Weekly years ago has multiple truths. Taxpayers indeed have had their tax burden increased to support the project. Also true is that the gridlock depicted in the cartoon has only gotten worse. 

 

The project’s four main goals will be as valid in 2021 as they were when originally created more than a decade ago. First among those equal goals is improved corridor mobility.  

 

As 2020 ends today, glimmers of good news shine through the gloom. The federal government has granted the city a one-year extension of the deadline it had set to devise a viable financial plan to complete the build-out. And, the newly appointed leader of the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation has said she supports building the final five miles of the elevated guideway all the way to Ala Moana Center.

 

With 2020 behind us, rail supporters can at least take some measure of hope that 2021 will be a new beginning for the project – and for just about everything else.

HART: Despite COVID-19, “Right Now We Are on Our Schedule” To Begin Rail Operations Late this Year

                                                                     Honolulu Star-Advertiser photo

It’s way too soon to know for sure, but the head of the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transit (HART) is sticking to his prediction that Honolulu’s elevated rail project will launch service late this year – coronavirus notwithstanding.

Andrew Robbins, HART’s chief executive officer, told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser: “We talked to our contractors. … They’ve all been advising their employees about hand-washing, safe practices, if you don’t feel well, who to call; but other than that, it’s been business as usual. They’ve been out there working.”

Hitachi Rail, the project’s contractor, has warned that its supply chain may be affected by the worldwide coronavirus pandemic and has thereby taken the position that it should not suffer “force majeure” penalties if it can’t stick to its schedule. As the Star-Advertiser story notes, HART doesn’t agree.

                                                         Platform safety doors (HART photograph)

In other “news” (that’s nearly 7 years old), Honolulu’s elevated rail system will be far safer than planned when we broke off writing Yes2Rail in 2012.

HART approved the addition of Platform Safety Screens back in 2013 that will prevent passengers from accidentally falling, being pushed, or deliberately jumping onto the tracks.

We had seen these safety doors in action in Paris when we visited more than a decade ago; the photo (below-right) was taken from inside a train car. Two sets of doors are visible in the photo -- doors on the train itself (the shiny chrome set) and doors on the platform (showing as white). The doors open simultaneously in sync with one another, just like the elevators in a building.

These doors were on the high-traffic Line #1, which runs east-west through the heart of Paris. The doors were added long long after the Paris Metro began operating.

The change to add doors on the Honolulu system is likely an under-appreciated feature by future riders. If you’re like us, you edge away from the tracks as a train arrives in a subway or metro station. The safety doors may even convince parents and grandparents that young school-age children in their families can ride Honolulu rail safely.

For now, stay safe by maintaining your social distancing during the COVID-19 crisis!

How Is it that Honolulu Isn’t Ranked in the Inrix Annual Traffic Study this Year? Our Eyes Tell Us Oahu’s Traffic Is Increasing, so What Gives?

The new international study is out today, and unlike every other year we can recall, Honolulu’s not in it. At least, we couldn’t find any mention of driving hours lost to congestion in Honolulu due to traffic in 2019.

That seems curious. The 2018 study ranked Honolulu #18 on the national list, with the average 92 hours lost to congestion. The ’18 report said congestion had dropped 4 percent from the year before, so Honolulu appeared “to be on the right track.”

But does anyone believe Honolulu’s traffic improved so much in 2019 that the city dropped completely off the list of America’s 50 most heavily congested cities?  

Not likely 

TomTom, a company that uses a different methodology, ranked Honolulu #9 just last year in the mix with mainland cities using its Traffic Index. As recently as 2012, Honolulu edged out Los Angeles for the infamous #1 rank among mainland cities for hours lost to congestion. In 2013, it was the second worst; 2015 had the city as 10th worst.

So for the city to slip completely off the list seems not likely. Maybe one of our media friends can figure out why Inrex's new ranking excludes Honolulu.** 

Or is it simply that congestion elsewhere is increasing so fast that Honolulu's been surpassed.

It sure doesn't feel like traffic's getting better in Honolulu. Maybe this is just another example of Hawaii being "left out" of the United States -- something that used to happen so often in mainland publications that it would drive Pacific Business News Editor George Mason to distraction!

** A local reporter saw my Twitter post (@DougNorCal) and responded: "I wondered about that too -- reached out to @INRIX this morning; haven't heard back yet..." Will be watching to see if he writes about a response from Inrix.

Defeat of Bay Area Rail Funding Measure Shows Why It’s So Important for the Public (and News Media) To Understand Rail’s True Purpose

San Jose Mercury-News headline on March 4:

Contra Costa County tax measure to tame traffic appears headed for defeat

The San Francisco Chronicle’s coverage of the vote noted the funding measure “drew criticism from government watchdogs who said the money would do little to unclog roads and freeways.”

The Mercury-News headline and Chronicle story may reveal a touch of media misunderstanding about why rail systems are built. If the news media don’t get it, the public may not have understood it either.

Rail projects don’t “tame traffic” or “unclog roads and freeways.” They provide the public with an alternative to road congestion. 

Tired of fighting traffic? Take the train!

Researchers have written extensively about the tendency of car drivers to fill any perceived open space on highways; you can read about it here. But enough Honolulu commuters will resist that tendency to make Honolulu rail a tremendous success.

Rail’s supporters would do well to keep reminding their friends and neighbors of the project’s goals. The train will deliver commuters from one end of the system to the other in only 42 minutes -- with no traffic congestion to slow the trip!

There’s nothing “government watchdogs” can say that will diminish rail's no-traffic appeal. 

In Reporting the ‘Other Side’ of Rail Story, Honolulu Media Keep Publicizing Views of Critic Known for His Decades-Long Campaign to Mislead the Public and Obfuscate Facts

You can’t blame the news media for searching out rail critic Cliff Slater when they need a rail opponent’s views for an emerging story. He’s been fighting rail since the Fasi Administration and is always ready with a quote, as he was yesterday for KITV.

But you do have to wonder if reporters understand the depth of his misrepresentation of rail facts over the years. We’ve repeatedly documented his record here at Yes2Rail (see the Mr. Cliff Slater section of our “Aggregation Site”) and will keep at it as long as Slater continues to be the media’s go-to anti-rail talking head.

Reporters show no obvious awareness of Slater’s track record as Obfuscator in Chief. I’ve never seen a reporter put Slater on the defensive about his main talking point.

‘No Kidding’

Slater seemed to be prideful of that talking point when he spoke to Hawaii News Now in 2012: “We’ve been promoting the fact that the city says in the final EIS that traffic congestion with rail in the future will be worse (than it is today).”

Two years earlier, Slater used that point before the City Council, only to have Wayne Yoshioka, the city’s Director of Transportation Services, sarcastically put him in his place: “No Kidding, in the future, traffic congestion will be greater than it is today. I don’t think that’s any earth-shattering news….”

Yoshioka’s point was that congestion will continue to grow along with the population and that it will be worse without rail than with it. Even Slater had to admit that point when pressed at the City Council hearing.

But have the media ever taken note of Slater’s deliberate obfuscation? Even the mission statement at his website hides the fact that traffic congestion is here to stay for reasons we’ve discussed here at Yes2Rail as recently as this month.

So reporters (if any of you accidently stumble across Yes2Rail), please stop giving Cliff Slater a free pass. Ask him straight out: “Will building rail slow traffic congestion's growth along Oahu’s commuting corridor?”

The honest answer is Yes!

Rail Will Be a Choice! The truth about riding Honolulu rail is that those who do will experience ZERO TRAFFIC!

It’s almost impossible to read a week of media reports on Honolulu’s rail project without finding a reference to rail being an intended “solution” to Oahu’s traffic woes.

The media have gotten that wrong time and again, so it’s appropriate to remind the public (and the media) about why rail is being built.

Here’s a paragraph from this blog’s post on May 16, 2011: 

Rail’s True Purpose

Rail will restore MOBILITY to Oahu residents – the ability to move whenever you want and at any time of day through the length of the east-west urban core completely unaffected by traffic congestion. This fact is so critical it’s first among equals in the project's four goals. “Solving traffic” is not one of them! It’s also what is missing in nearly all media coverage of the project.

Readers in 2020 are invited to read that 5/16/11 post in full at the above link. 

Rather than focus on the dismal truth, that traffic will continue to grow along with the population, visitors, and car imports, let’s keep reminding the public of rail’s true purpose – increased mobility and traffic-free commuting through Oahu’s southern corridor. 

The only way to avoid traffic in Oahu's congested future is to remove yourself from the traffic by riding Honolulu's rail system – above the traffic.

Well-Researched Bloomberg Article on Honolulu Rail Project’s Financing Nevertheless Gets Something Wrong – Something That Needs Correcting

View of Hō‘ae‘ae Station that will serve West Loch, Ewa Beach, and Waipahu
illustrates how commuters will ride above street traffic. -- HART Photo

As a former reporter (and current media trainer), I tell clients it’s difficult for reporters to get every fact straight in their stories. That’s why (free tip) newsmakers have an obligation to help reporters get the facts right. 

A recent Bloomberg news agency story on the Honolulu rail project is a case in point. The story reported on Honolulu’s sale of general obligation bonds to help finance construction of the rail project. 

Reporter Joe Mysak noted: “There are two things you can say about building a rail transit project: They sure are expensive, and they sure are worth it.”

Oahu residents are learning about the former and are looking forward to the “worth it” part. Yes2Rail’s never-ending theme is that grade-separated transit – elevated in Honolulu’s case – is worth it because it’s the only way to completely avoid being stuck in traffic on the daily commute. The photograph above illustrates the concept; rail commuters will glide on rail tracks 30 or more feet above cars in the grind.

Mr. Mysak, who clearly understands the benefits of grade-separated transit, ends his article: “With the train financing, Honolulu is betting on its own future, one with fewer cars and buses. That’s a pretty good bet.”

And that’s where he goes slightly off the rails. Honolulu’s project never promised to “solve” traffic or reduce the number of cars and buses on the roads. The project’s #1 goal is to improve mobility for Oahu residents by providing an alternative to cars and buses – an alternative that will be completely unaffected by traffic.

It’s important to make that correction. Rail opponents tried for years to convince Oahu residents that if traffic will be worse after rail is built than it is now, the project would be for naught, and that’s just not true. The leader of the opposition finally had to admit the obvious – that traffic would be worse in the future if rail weren’t built.

So to paraphrase Mr. Mysak’s “pretty good bet,” Honolulu’s future will include a way for residents and commuters to move through Oahu’s southern corridor traffic-free. 

That’s a goal worth pursuing nearly everywhere, especially on an island with no room to expand the highway network.

Rail’s Messaging Has Changed? So Says a Star-Advertiser Columnist, but Nothing’s Changed about Rail’s Promise – Traffic-Free Commuting for Those Who Ride It

                         Honolulu's elevated trains will be true to a timetable.

Lee Cataluna’s column in Sunday's Star-Advertiser asserted that the Honolulu elevated rail project recently has changed its messaging.  

Maybe yes, maybe no. I personally couldn’t quite zero in on what she meant, but I do know what hasn’t changed:

Rail will provide traffic-free commuting to each and every person who chooses to ride it.

That’s it. That’s the unchanging promise of rail. Quibble about some messages if you want, but when this project is up and running (sooner than later, we hope), rail will be the sought-after alternative to being stuck in traffic.

Does anyone seriously doubt traffic-free commuting will appeal to south-side commuters? Do media pundits truly believe trains running between Kapolei and downtown during peak commute times won't be full?

The long wait for the rail project has pushed some observers to go all cynical, all the time (newspaper columnists require no time at all to get there). The delays and cost increases have been frustrating, but in the end, scores of thousands of daily commuters will praise the decision to build rail, and here’s why:

Grade-separated transit is the only form of transportation that guarantees a time of arrival at your destination. 

When you board an elevated train, you’ll know exactly when you’ll step off at the station of your choice.

That’s rail's main message, and it has never changed.

We’re Mad about Trains. Specifically, We’re Mad about ELEVATED Trains – Like the System Honolulu Is Building

Click here for this classic Mad Men episode on why trains are better than cars for commuting -- especially between West Oahu and anywhere along the line all the way to Ala Moana Center.

If It’s True Bus Ridership Is Lagging, That Means Car Traffic Is Increasing on Our Streets and Highways, and That’s Why Rail Is Being Built!

I have to thank Facebook for its inquiry about whether I know Honolulu resident Randy Roth and for asking if I want to add him as a Facebook Friend. I hit “decline,” not because of any animus toward Professor Roth, but because I rarely add “friends” whom I don’t know reasonably well.

But Facebook’s inquiry peaked my curiosity about what Randy is up to these days. He and I were – and still are – on opposite sides of the elevated rail project; he’s against it, and I’m for it for reasons I described over four years here at my Yes2Rail blog. 

When I visited his Facebook account, I wasn’t surprised to find a post that took aim at elevated rail: “Bus ridership in Honolulu is down by roughly 1.3 million rides per month since 2012. This affects rail because HART has long assumed 60% of all rail users will reach the rail station by bus. Why hasn't HART revised its rail ridership projections to reflect the substantial and continuing decrease in bus ridership?”

Professor Roth’s comment was prompted by an October 9, 2019 KHON2 report on the ridership decline. Mr. Roth asked in that story, “Well, if the number of people that are riding the bus has been coming down further and further every year, doesn’t that impact rail ridership?”

In light of the ridership decline, it must be asked: How are those former bus riders now commuting to work? They’re not taking a water shuttle or a helicopter. They’re driving. It’s the only logical conclusion based on the reduced bus ridership, and by driving, those former bus riders are inevitably contributing to Honolulu’s ever-increasing traffic congestion.

Traffic congestion is why rail is being built in the first place, remember? First among the project's four goals is Goal #1 -- “Improve Corridor Mobility.” 

I wrote about Goal #1 here at Yes2Rail back on January 3, 2011.

The drop in bus ridership isn’t surprising, because at some point, when traffic is worse than ever and the grind along Oahu’s southern corridor is almost unbearable, bus riders say to themselves, “If I have to sit in this traffic for 90 minutes, two hours or more, I’d rather sit in my own car, with air conditioning, my radio, my coffee, my solitude.”

Switching from Car to the Train

Commuters have been making that choice for decades. When I reported on City Hall for the Honolulu Advertiser in 1974, Deputy Transportation Director Roy Parker called the choice Parker’s Law: Until public transit is demonstrably faster and more convenient than driving a car, most commuters will choose “my car at my time.” It’s just what Americans do.

In 2013, researchers did an experiment that produced a remarkable result: People showed an irrational bias toward automobiles despite evidence that other modes of transportation would save them money.

Check out their report here. 

Once it’s running, rail will be so much faster than commuting in one’s own car that “hitting the rails” will be an easy choice. The project will move commuters from Kapolei to downtown in about 40 minutes, and it won’t take long for a significant number of car drivers who commute along the line's route to switch to rail when they look up and see a train speeding past their traffic jam.

It’s good to get my “rail juices” flowing again. I essentially shut down Yes2Rail when I moved to Sacramento in 2012 and turned my attention elsewhere. With the leadership of the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation promising an October 10, 2020 start-up of the rail system, it might just be time to reenergize Yes2Rail. The naysayers are sure to be grabbing attention before 10/10/2020, and rail supporters would do well to balance the negativity with visions of rail's positive future. Of that,  I am confident.

On Second Thought, Maybe It's Time To Kick-Start This Blog Again. With the Elevated Rail Project Set To Be Operational on 10/10/20, There's Still Much To Be Said --- and Refuted

May 4, 2019 Update: Let's get something straight here at Yes2Rail. I just read a 5/2/14 story on CivilBeat.org in which reporter Sophie Cocke wrote the following: "Doug Carlson, who HART paid more than $536,000 for communicating on its behalf, repeatedly attacked former Hawaii Gov. Ben Cayetano on his rail blog. Cayetano was running for mayor on a platform focused on killing the rail project." Not once did I "attack" Cayetano. I called  out his inadequate so-called plans to move people efficiently along Oahu's southern corridor between Ewa and downtown. 

Even the Honolulu Star-Advertiser asked in its May 27, 2012 editorial, "What exactly is Cayetano's transit plan?" So I ask any readers to disregard the reporter's inarticulate description of my assessment of Cayetano's plan, which he spent months hiding from the public. As my column to the right of this main section notes under "This Isn't Political," finding fault with a candidate's transportation plans is not the same as "attacking" the candidate. Maybe reporters will understand that one day. 
About my fee: It was spread over five years and was appropriate for someone with my experience on rail issues, starting with Mayor Frank Fasi's failed effort to build elevated rail in the early 1990s, and continuing through the "dreary years" between the Fasi plan's death in 1992 and Mayor Mufi Hannemann's resurrection of rail in the next decade.
Mayor Hannemann called me to his office in 2007 and asked me to join his rail team. He had followed my efforts to counter Cliff Slater's anti-rail campaign over the years as I pushed back at Slater in public as often as possible when he took his shots at rail. Here are some examples:
*  "Trolley wouldn't solve city's transit problem," Honolulu Star-Bulletin, 10/6/98;
*   "Rail will forever be a failure for car-loving Cliff Slater," Honolulu Advertiser, 11/17/03; 
*    "The only rational way to shorten commute times is to provide alternatives to driving on already over-crowded highways," Honolulu Advertiser, 10/23/05;
*    "Cliff Slater's decades-long opposition to rail is based on a calculated misinformation campaign," Honolulu Star-Bulletin, 10/8/06.
There's more of my commentary out there on the Internet -- not as much as you'll find from Cliff Slater and the troika of anti-rail columnists in the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, but posts here at Yes2Rail were fact-based, unlike what you'll find in their continuing campaign. 
So, yes -- I earned my fee as a member of the rail project's Public Outreach Team, and I'll defend it against all comers.....as usual.

November 6, 2012 Update: Pro-rail Kirk Caldwell defeated anti-railer Ben Cayetano in today's mayoral election, 53.9 to 46.1 percent. The result mirrors the August primary election's pro-rail outcome, as summarized in the headline above and in the post below. (We probably shouldn't say "told you so," but in fact, we did.) And if you're really curious about what we said about Mr. Cayetano's transportation ideas that were wholly dependent on anti-railer Cliff Slater's ideas, visit our aggregation site and scroll down to the 2012 Mayoral Race and Rail section.

AUGUST 2012: Barring unexpected developments that could reverse this decision, today’s post is Yes2Rail’s last – number 804 in the series that began on June 30, 2008. So we sign off with a few closing comments as we prepare to concentrate our energies on All Things California.

Some people in Honolulu would have you believe the rail project is like a boxer who’s barely surviving the 10^th round of a 12-round championship fight. He’s behind on all the scorecards, but still they work hard to convince the public that a knockout punch is likely even this late in the fight – despite all the evidence.

The Honolulu Elevated Rail Project is farther down the track than any other proposal to create a traffic-free commuting alternative in Our Honolulu’s congestion-choked southern corridor. The project's Full Funding Grant Agreement application is in Washington and is likely to be approved in the next few months, something the late Frank F. Fasi, who was elected Honolulu's mayor six times, never came close to achieving despite multiple attempts to build rail.  His final plan died in the City Council 20 years ago this Fall.

So how did rail succeed this time around? Oh, I dunno…..maybe because it benefited from an excellent public information campaign! That’s one conclusion someone could make (we just did), since rail has been consistently supported by Oahu residents several years running, including only two days ago.

In 2008, the pro-rail candidates won and anti-railers lost. A scientific poll released four years ago this month found 58 percent of those surveyed supporting rail, while only 38 percent said they were opposed. Remember the City Charter amendment that year directing the City’s transportation division to pursue a steel-on-steel system? It passed.

One year later, a poll reported 60 percent support for the project among those who were scientifically surveyed – 34 percent strongly supportive and 26 percent somewhat supportive. Of the 37 percent who said they were opposed, 21 percent were strongly against the project, and 16 percent were somewhat opposed.

In 2010, pro-rail candidates won, anti-rail candidates lost. Voters overwhelmingly approved a City Charter amendment to create the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation, thereby creating an entity to build and operate Honolulu rail.

A few months later in May 2011, another scientific survey found support for rail at 57 percent, with 40 percent opposed. That poll was publicized in the same month the Gang of Four – Cliff Slater, Ben Cayetano, Randy Roth and Walter Heen – filed a federal lawsuit to kill the rail project.

One year ago next Sunday, the Gang launched its massive public relations campaign against rail with a 1500-word commentary in the newspaper. Online Civil Beat fact-checked the piece and found numerous false statements. Civil Beat judged only two to be  TRUE , two  FALSE  and three  HALF-TRUE/HALF-FALSE .

The Gang’s PR campaign has been barreling along virtually nonstop since last August and hit its peak with the launch of former Governor Cayetano’s campaign for mayor in January, with near-constant media coverage of his anti-rail rhetoric. Yes2Rail concluded he really didn't understand rail very well. He's essentially a one-issue candidate, as the media continually remind us.

So How's Rail Doing Now?          

In spite of all this negativity about the rail, the project is doing just fine, thank you very much, and the evidence of rail’s continuing support among the public is only two days old.

Saturday’s Primary Election supplied that evidence.

Pro-Rail Candidates:  54.6 percent

Anti-Rail Candidate:   44.7 percent

After all of the criticism, all the negativity, all the accusations and misrepresentations in the anti-rail camp’s massive multi-media PR campaign (see our “aggregation site” and the Mr. Cliff Slater and Friends heading), the opponents have failed to move the needle! The rail project’s support among Oahu voters two days ago was a solid majority!

Candidates have come and gone, some won and some lost, but consistent throughout the years has been the rail project's public involvement campaign that week after week, month after month supplied residents with truthful information that helped them understand and appreciate the project.

But as they say, no good deed goes unpunished, and the rail project’s public involvement team was "whacked" this summer, to use Civil Beat's word for the budget-trimming. Those of us whose involvement with rail ends this month leave knowing the mission was accomplished.

What About the Polls?

The public opinion surveys published by the Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now and Civil Beat in recent weeks deserve a second look. The newspaper/TV poll published on July 29 called it almost exactly right for Mr. Cayetano – 44 percent support in the Primary. The survey underestimated Mr. Caldwell’s support by nearly 5 percentage points and overestimated Mr. Carlisle’s backing by 2 points.

Civil Beat’s most recent survey (its story was updated only last Wednesday) had Mr. Cayetano at 51 percent, thereby badly missing the election’s outcome. That poll was conducted among “very likely Oahu voters” only, a methodology CB has used repeatedly in 2012 that Yes2Rail believes is seriously flawed. UH professor Neal Milner said we had a point.

Governments do not differentiate between voters and non-voters in their planning processes. With non-voters having lower incomes and less education than voters, they’re more likely to rely on public transit than citizens who vote. Opinion surveys on rail that ignore the non-voters’ views can’t possibly reflect the community’s true support and appreciation of the rail project.

Whatever the reasons for Civil Beat’s big miss in its most recent survey, getting rid of voter-only polling can only help.

And Finally....

Yes2Rail has criticized the Honolulu news media over the past several months for their hands-off approach to covering Governor Cayetano’s bus rapid transit alternative to elevated Honolulu rail. After weeks of Yes2Rail posts calling on Mr. Cayetano to release details of his “plan,” the Star-Advertiser finally pressed the point in a late-May editorial.

However, in the end, we’re not so sure the media’s poor performance really mattered. The August 2012 Primary Election's results showed that rail continues to receive majority support among Oahu residents.

Despite the media's laid-back reporting and the opponents’ anti-rail rhetoric, residents managed to sort and sift through the information available to them from multiple sources, including the rail project itself, and gave the pro-rail candidates more votes than the would-be rail killer.

That's a good note for rail's public involvement team to leave on.

AUGUST 16th UPDATE: Letter to Honolulu Star-Advertiser:
Headline missed real vote winner
Shouldn't this have been the banner headline in Sunday's Star-Advertiser: "Pro-rail candidates win primary, 55 to 44 percent"?
Jerome M. Comcowich
Kailua   

Civil Beat Follows Yes2Rail’s Lead, Fact-Checks Cayetano Radio Spot and Finds It Only ‘Half True’ – but the Analysis Gets Just as Bogged Down in Statistics as the Candidate’s Anti-Rail Campaign and Misses 4 Big Points

It took Civil Beat two weeks to do what Yes2Rail did on July 26^th when we concluded a Ben Cayetano radio spot is “flat-out wrong” in suggesting drivers won’t benefit once Honolulu’s rail system is in operation.

Civil Beat’s analysis seems to be precisely correct in finding fault with the spot based on various tables and data within them in rail’s Final Environmental Impact Statement. Well and good, but can we please get our noses out of the FEIS and step back to appreciate the bigger picture?

Here’s are four points we think Civil Beat missed in an analysis that must warm the hearts of every stat fanatic and accountant:

Point One

Does anybody really believe Ben Cayetano is driving this bus? In finding the Cayetano radio spot only  HALF TRUE , Civil Beat merely confirms what we’ve been harping on here at Yes2Rail for years:

Cliff Slater deliberately uses misinformation and obfuscation to confuse the public into believing rail would be a failure if congestion continues to grow long after rail is built. And now he has Mr. Cayetano doing it, too.

Rail’s “failure” to prevent congestion from growing as the population grows is Mr. Slater’s top talking point, and you hear it in Mr. Cayetano’s statements, too – slipped to the candidate behind closed doors by anti-railer-in-chief.

The anti-rail mayoral candidate is leaning so heavily on Cliff Slater for his campaign’s theme that it may as well be Mr. Slater who’s running for mayor so he can kill rail transit now and forever on Oahu.

We provided links two days ago in Yes2Rail's post to several earlier posts about Mr. Slater’s obfuscation campaign. You’re invited to click on them, read them and then reflect on whether the current campaign against rail is what citizens have a right to expect from their leaders.

Point Two

Can we settle for anything less than the whole truth from people who want to run this city? We’ve made this point before, too, and our summary of Civil Beat’s Fact Checks on the Gang of Four’s August 2011 commentary is worth a repeat visit.

Of the seven issues Civil Beat checked, it found only two that were  TRUE  , two that were completely  FALSE  , and three that were  HALF TRUE , which means they also were  HALF FALSE  .

That’s a terrible record for a quartet made up of three attorneys – including a former governor, a current law school professor and a former judge – and Mr. Slater. By relying on a self-proclaimed 'transit expert' for their material, the three lawyers are willing passengers on Mr. Slater’s bus – The Obfuscation Express.

Point Three

The radio spot avoids any reference to the benefit rail will provide for the people who need it most – west Oahu residents who travel to and from town through the east-west urban corridor. It lumps all drivers into the same category – people from East Honolulu, the Windward Side, the North Shore, everywhere – and suggests rail will be a failure if they don’t plan to ride the train.

Rail isn’t being built for everyone! Oahu’s #1 congestion problem is precisely where the rail line will serve communities and residents in that corridor. The radio spot’s intellectual dishonesty is undoubtedly obvious to my fifth-grade granddaughter and her friends!

Point Four

As we noted two weeks ago, commuters who continue to drive their own cars will enjoy less congestion after rail is built than if we did nothing at all. That’s a close paraphrase of Mr. Slater’s admission before the City Council in July 2010 when he conceded that rail will have the positive benefit of slowing congestion’s inevitable growth.

The project believes island-wide congestion as measured in vehicle hours of delay will be reduced by 18 percent in 2030 with rail in operation.  The anti-rail radio spot is flat-out wrong.

Bottom Line

We’re not finding fault with Civil Beat’s analysis of the spot. It did a good job as far as it went. But there’s so much left unsaid in most media coverage of the rail debate, including this Fact Check, that Yes2Rail has had no trouble feasting on what's been left out over the past four years.

The Cayetano campaign's recent radio spot is more of the same – easy pickings actually.

Checking Out More Yes2Rail Posts in the Rear-View Mirror: Some People (Who Should Know Better) Still Express Enthusiasm for At-Grade Rail, so Let’s Review another Rail-Related Big Issue – COLLISIONS

 Honolulu could expect crashes like this if rail were built at ground level.

If you’ve read it here once, you’ve seen it dozens of times: Only grade-separated transit can provide fast, frequent, reliable and safe travel through the city – each time you ride.

Elevated rail will be faster that any surface-based transportation system, no matter what anti-railer-in-chief Cliff Slater says. Rail will be more frequent – arriving every 3 minutes during rush hour – and it’ll be more reliable by never ever being involved in crashes with other vehicles at intersections. The are no intersections when the line is elevated above traffic.

And that’s where we’re landing today – smack dab on the Safety issue. It’s no surprise people who oppose Honolulu rail avoid talking about the safety issue at all costs. They just don’t have an answer for it.

We’ve tried calling them out on the safety issue, and we banged away pretty hard in 2010 around the time Governor Linda Lingle held her “public hearing” on rail in the State Capitol. It was a staged event to highlight her opposition to rail and support for an at-grade rail version supported by some in Honolulu’s architect community.

Our headline on January 15 declared At-Grade’s Drawbacks Can’t Be Airbrushed Away. The post’s eight bullet points detailed the obvious drawbacks of running light-rail trains on Hotel Street through Honolulu’s downtown section, including super-crowded Chinatown. It’s impossible for anyone except the most ardent at-grade supporters to imagine such a scheme. Look at the photographs in that post and come to your own conclusion.

Two days later our post was headlined 3 ‘Crosswalk Pedestrian’ Deaths Already in 2010; AIA Still Pushes for At-Grade Train in Chinatown.

The January 19, 2010 hearing captured Yes2Rail’s attention under the headline AIA Capitol Hearing Skirts At-Grade Safety Issue; Chapter’s Vision Won’t Do What Honolulu Needs.  Safety had become the biggest argument against at-grade rail, so we kept at it then and later:

• January 20: Honolulu Has US’s 2^nd Worst Traffic Bottleneck, Yet the AIA Still Wants To Build At-Grade Trolley

• January 21: National Transit Leader Calls Honolulu Rail Plan ‘Gold Standard’ of Transit, Says Elevated Rail Is Safer, More Reliable and More Attractive To Ride

• January 24: Editorial: Elevated Rail Best Deal for Taxpayers; Also Commuters, Drivers and Property Owners

• January 29: 3 More At-Grade Rail Myths Debunked, Plus AIA Internal Poll Shows Low At-Grade Rail Support

The January 29 post deserves some extra attention because it reported on details of the AIA chapter’s internal poll among its members on the rail issue. We wrote:

“The results are remarkable in light of the chapter’s impassioned advocacy of at-grade rail. Using the figures in the poll summary reveals only 5.3% of the chapter’s membership responded in favor of at-grade rail. Larger percentages favored elevated rail (6.3%) and below-grade rail (8.4%).

“Another way to parse these numbers is that nearly three times as many respondents favored grade-separated rail (96) compared to at-grade (35). So how can the AIA Rail Task Force members go before the community with a straight face and say at-grade rail is such a favorite among local architects?”

As we noted in that post, only 24.3% of the respondents supported at-grade rail, 38.2% said rail should be built below ground, 28.5% said elevated was best and the rest didn’t care or failed to give a response. We summarized: “75.7% of the respondents chose not to select at-grade rail – a remarkable outcome in light of the chapter’s campaign in favor of that option.”

Yes2Rail’s post on April 2, 2010 was headlined Lingle Still Supports At-Grade Rail Despite Flaws; Doesn’t Fast, Frequent, Reliable & Safe Matter? As she demonstrated over the final months of her term by withholding approval of the Final Environmental Impact Statement, Governor Lingle didn’t think Honolulu’s rail project mattered at all.

Consider the Crashes

The photographs in Yes2Rail’s right-hand column don’t lie. They’re the images of what happens when at-grade rail transit is inserted into a city – any city. It’s never a good idea when trains, cars, buses, trucks and pedestrians try to occupy the same space.

Even the newest rail systems with tons of lessons learned from other rail-equipped cities around the country can run into trouble. One year ago, Norfolk, VA launched The Tide, its relatively short at-grade rail system, and recorded its first accident – before the system officially began service!

Our August 12 post was headlined Yet To Open, Norfolk’s Train Has First Car Crash. Check out also this TV station report following that accident that examined all the bells and whistles the at-grade system uses to alert motorists and pedestrians that a train is approaching. Listen to those horns and be thankful Honolulu's system will be elevated, with no need for warning sounds!

But that was just the beginning. A second collision was recorded a few days later during the “practice” sessions with the new system. WAVY-TV carried two video reports on that collision, here and here.

Sacramento’s system was the subject of our Jogging & Keeping Pace with an At-Grade Train post on September 19, 2009 that focused on the system’s relatively slow speed compared to Honolulu’s future elevated system. 

California’s capital city has had its share of crashes, too. KCRA-TV carried this breaking-news report on March 29 this year on a two-car, one-train crash near downtown Sacramento. Tragically, three died at a Sacramento Light Rail road crossing early this year.

Houston, TX? See this compilation of crashes called Metro’s Greatest Hits involving the city’s Metro Rail system that runs on city streets.

Salt Lake City, UT? Check out this report on a teenager's death and other videos depicting the TRAX system’s numerous crashes and fatalities – at least 7 deaths over a four-year period. The chart at right was included in a TV station’s report that compared the city’s operational record with other at-grade rail systems in the western region of the country.

Phoenix, AZ? Our December 2, 2009 post – Train Meets Van in Another At-Grade Rail Collision – reported on the growing number of crashes involving the city’s new 20-mile system that recorded 52 accidents in its first year of operation.

And still some prominent people in Honolulu believe at-grade rail would be a good idea for our city. Will they be asked to defend that preference in light of at-grade's poor safety record compared to elevated rail? Is preserving a view plane worth a single life, let alone many? Don't elevated rail's fast, frequent, reliable and safe attributes matter? Of course they matter. Maybe you'll have a chance to ask those prominent people in the weeks ahead if their transit preferences compare favorably with Honolulu's future elevated rail system that literally above all will be safe.